Elon Musk stunned fans and investors this week by revealing that Tesla’s Optimus robot is still ‘not even close’ to its final form. Elon Musk shared videos on X revealing the newest advancements to the humanoid robot. In the first footage, Optimus is shown dancing while attached to a leash. The second film heightened the stakes, with Optimus doing exquisite ballet steps unrestrained.
What made it even more impressive was that these movements were not manually programmed. According to Tesla’s VP of Optimus, Milan Kovac, the robot learnt these actions purely through simulation. “Zero-shot transfer to real without extra training,” he told me. In short, the robot learnt digitally and executed it flawlessly in real life on the first try.
Elon Musk’s Vision
Despite the buzz, Elon Musk delivered a statement that reframed everything. In a follow-up message to X, he stated that Optimus is still “not even close” to what Tesla had planned. That’s remarkable, especially because the robot is already being manufactured at Tesla’s Fremont Factory. It now roams industrial floors automatically, walking and charging as needed.
This raises the question: if this is only the beginning, what does the final version look like? Some believe Tesla is aiming to replicate the ultra-sleek concept design unveiled in 2021. That prototype had more human-like joints and dimensions, reminiscent of a sci-fi film.
A Surprise Appearance at Tesla’s Shareholder Meeting?
Elon Musk amplified the enthusiasm with a bold tease. He joked about being accompanied by “a troupe of dancing Optimus robots” during Tesla’s 2024 Annual Shareholder Meeting. If this becomes a reality, it will be the first time a group of robots performs live choreography, a momentous technological milestone.
Though the concept appears lighthearted, it shows Tesla’s belief in the robot’s balance and mobility. These aren’t pre-programmed devices; they’re learning and adapting units powered by Tesla’s artificial intelligence framework.
The AI Roadmap: A $10 Trillion Opportunity?
Musk spoke openly about Optimus’ potential on Tesla’s recent Q4 earnings call. He elaborated:
“Optimus has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in revenue.”
This estimate astounded many. However, it is a dip from his earlier summer projection of $200 trillion.
This diverse spectrum has stirred controversy. Is Optimus a gold mine or simply a high-tech experiment? Investors are split. However, most people think that Tesla is serious about its robotics strategy, and Optimus is key to it.
Caution for Investors: TAM is Hard to Predict
While the numbers Musk throws out are exciting, experts warn against getting carried away. Estimating a total addressable market (TAM) for humanoid robots is incredibly difficult. We simply don’t know how society will use these bots, or how fast adoption will grow.
- And there are big unknowns:
- How fast can Tesla produce Optimus at scale?
- How much will each unit cost?
- Will businesses or consumers be the first big buyers?
Until more clarity emerges, analysts say investors should focus less on projections and more on the underlying innovation.
As Musk once said, “Tesla is not just a car company. We are an AI company.”
Optimus may be the clearest proof of that statement yet. Tesla’s Optimus robot is already amazing. But according to Elon Musk, it’s still just the beginning. Between jaw-dropping dance demos, bold revenue forecasts, and factory integration, Optimus is shaping up to be much more than a tech showpiece. Whether it becomes a $10 trillion industry or not, it’s a story worth watching closely.
